Due to the Thanksgiving Holiday, there was no edition of the Pigskin Diaries this week over on Pokernews. No worries, I’ll pick up the slack here on RRW.
These picks are a bit abridged, and I probably could’ve Tweeted them, but 140 characters just isn’t enough.
I encourage you to comment below.
Minnesota (+6) @ Chicago
Earlier this season, we touched upon the historical success rate (55 percent) of teams coming off of a bye. In Week 11 alone, teams coming off of a bye were 4-0 against the spread (ATS). Chicago’s offense has struggled mightily, ranking 29th in total offense DVOA, and I like the over on .5 snaps for Jason Campbell.
Atlanta @ Tampa Bay (+1)
The Falcons are one of only two teams with a 9-1 record. Unlike Houston however, Atlanta (12th) is ranked outside of the top ten in Overall DVOA. Tampa Bay sits right behind them, ranking 13th.
A part of me wants the Falcons to win this game though, because I can’t wait to bet against them in the playoffs. I CAN’T WAIT!
Denver @ Kansas City (+10)
Teams getting seven or more points are 23-16-2 ATS this season. The Chiefs suck, but this line is simply too high.
Seattle @ Miami (+3)
The Dolphins have stunk the past few weeks, particularly a week and a half ago on Thursday Night Football, but I haven’t dove off of the bandwagon quite yet. Their defense is still solid (10th in total defense DVOA), and Ryan Tannehill certainly isn’t as bad as he’s played the last two weeks. The trip from Seattle to Miami (3,300 miles) is the longest in the NFL, and West Coast teams traditionally struggle when traveling from the West Coast to the East Coast. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Dolphins win this one outright.
Oakland (+8.5) @ Cincinnati
The one week I lay the wood against the Raiders, they’re going to win outright. How’s that for next level statistical analysis?
Pittsburgh (-1.5) @ Cleveland
The Browns gave everything last week and lost in overtime. That kind of loss hurts, especially when you’re out of contention. Cleveland could be stuck in a post-tryptophan haze today, while the Steelers are still clawing away for a playoff spot.
Tennessee @ Jacksonville (+3.5)
The Titans have been favored once this season. They lost outright. They should probably be one or two-point favorites, but taking the Titans and laying more than a field goal on the road is insane in my opinion.
Buffalo @ Indianapolis (-3)
Andrew Luck and the Colts are 4-1 ATS at home, and are a last-second 80-yard touchdown away from being a perfect 5-0. They’re a different team at home, and the Bills defense (29th in total DVOA) is awful.
Baltimore (PK) @ San Diego
Joe Flacco vs. Philip Rivers…who will suck less?
St. Louis @ Arizona (-1)
I want nothing to do with this game. It’s clearly a stay away. For the sake of the Pigskin Diaries, I’m taking the team that was embarrassed in primetime by their opponent earlier in the year.
San Francisco (-1) @ New Orleans
Colin. Kaepernick. Fear of God.
Green Bay (+3) @ New York Giants
Anytime I can get Aaron Rodgers as a dog, I’m taking it. Plain and simple.
Carolina (-3) @ Philadelphia
This Week: 1-2
Last Week: 10-4
Season: 88-73-2