I’ve been in Prague for the last week, and I was unable to write the Pigskin Diaries, but I still need to make my picks for Week 14. So, here’s an abridged version.
A few stats to guide you:
- Home teams are 94-111-3 ATS
- Favorites are 95-109-3 ATS
- Home dogs are 38-31-1 ATS
- Teams favored by a touchdown or more are 20-30-2 ATS
Jacksonville (+7.5) @ Miami
Because the Dolphins shouldn’t be laying more than a touchdown against any team.
Denver (-3) @ Baltimore
Because Jim Caldwell isn’t really an upgrade over Cam Cameron – they’re equally awful.
Washington (-1) @ Cleveland
Because the Browns can’t win four straight games…right?
Indianapolis (+10) @ Houston
Because the Colts are 6-2 ATS in domes.
Green Bay (-3) @ Chicago
Because Jay Cutler has a sprained knee and no offensive line.
New York Giants (+1.5) @ Atlanta
Because the Falcons are the softest 11-2 team in the history of the NFL.
Minnesota (+2.5) @ St. Louis
Because the Rams are 0-1 ATS as favorites in 2012.
Tampa Bay (+3.5) @ New Orleans
Because the Saints rank 31st in total defense DVOA.
Seattle @ Buffalo (+5)
Because the Seahawks are 3-4 ATS on the road, and are a couple plays away from being 2-5 ATS on the road.
Detroit @ Arizona (+6.5)
Because the Lions are 2-5 ATS as favorites in 2012.
Carolina (+3) @ San Diego
Because Norv emptied the playbook last week.
Kansas City @ Oakland (-3)
Because I have to make a pick in this game.
Pittsburgh @ Dallas (+1.5)
Because I’m the captain of the “Steelers are Old” bandwagon.
San Francisco (+4.5) @ New England
Because this line should be no larger than three.
New York Jets (+1.5) @ Tennessee
Because Gang Green is shooting for the worst draft pick possible.
This Week: 1-0
Last Week: 9-7